The importance of precession in modelling the direction of the final spin from a black-hole merger

The prediction of the spin of the black hole resulting from the merger of a generic black-hole binary system is of great importance to study the cosmological evolution of supermassive black holes. Several attempts have been recently made to model the spin via simple expressions exploiting the results of numerical-relativity simulations. Here, I first review the derivation of a formula, proposed in Ref. [1], which accurately predicts the final spin magnitude and direction when applied to binaries with separations of hundred or thousands of gravitational radii. This makes my formula particularly suitable for cosmological merger-trees and N-body simulations, which provide the spins and angular momentum of the two black holes when their separation is of thousands of gravitational radii. More importantly, I investigate the physical reason behind the good agreement between my formula and numerical relativity simulations, and nail it down to the fact that my formula takes into account the post-Newtonian precession of the spins and angular momentum in a consistent manner.