An evolutionary model for GHz peaked spectrum sources - Predictions for high frequency surveys

We have explored, in the general framework of the "young source" scenario, evolutionary models for GHz Peaked Spectrum (GPS) galaxies and quasars which reproduce the observed counts, redshift and peak frequency distributions of currently available samples. Substantially different cosmological evolution properties are found for the two populations: the quasar luminosity function must evolve strongly up to z similar to 1, while the data on galaxies may be consistent with no evolution. The models show that GPS sources (mostly quasars) may comprise quite a significant fraction of bright (S > 1 Jy) radio sources at v greater than or equal to 30 GHz if the intrinsic distribution of peak frequencies extends up to similar to 1000 GHz. In any case, however, their fraction decreases rapidly with decreasing flux and their contribution to small scale fluctuations in the frequency range covered by the forthcoming space missions MAP and Planck Surveyor is expected to be minor.